WE HELD a domestic Incident Management and Disaster Preparedness Committee (IMDPC) Meeting earlier this week to consider the impending  El Niño and its likely impact on our homestead.

Among the items that came up on the agenda were early warning systems, construction works on the roof and drains, and awareness building amongst domestic staff and neighbours.

At the end of the meeting, the Managing Partner flummoxed me with the question: “But how do they know for sure that this is going to happen?”

“El Niño?” I asked.

“Yes. Or that things will be that bad?”

The extent of my scientific and logical knowledge was: “Because they study these things. They do this for a living and use technology and some other things.”

That could easily have included guesswork and witchcraft, of course, but in the final analysis we still had to prepare for the worst even while hoping for the best.

One of my action items from the meeting was to share official information about the El Nino warnings ahead of the next IMPDC meeting.

What the Official Warning Actually Says

I shared the July 2026 ‘Early Warning Information’ Weather Advisory document from the Ministry of Water and Environment (MWE) in which I read (again) that: “…there is an increased likelihood of the development of an  El Niño event during the second half of 2026, with a possible persistence into 2027.”

It is not going to be a quick one-off rain storm.

First of all, the advisory says  El Niño is “characterized by warmer than normal sea surface temperatures…” which we know full well to be a very hot truth.

The internet explains it all quite easily: “El Niño often pairs with or induces a Positive Indian Ocean Dipole (+IOD). When warm waters pool in the western Indian Ocean near the East African coast, it elevates regional surface temperatures and raises ambient humidity, making daytime highs feel significantly more oppressive.”

That’s from one of the official scientific publications up online.

So… what are the items YOU discussed at your domestic meeting to prepare for El Niño and it’s impact?

Preparation Cannot Stop at Home

During this period I have had to google to find out that our Minister responsible for Disaster Preparedness is Hon. Sam Engola.

I have not heard from him directly in recent days but I now follow him on Twitter/X, just in case there will be tips and other useful pointers for us to use at home.

The Ministry, overall, should be telling us more about what to do to prepare for this El Niño; and here, I don’t mean just the Ministry of Disaster Preparedness or Office of the Prime Minister.

The entire government should be on high alert and making us join them there individually.

In our IMDPC we considered home logistics and how we rely on boda-bodas for various elements of smooth living.

Now think nationally about boda-bodas.

Most estimates online claim that in Uganda we have between 1.2million-1.5million boda-bodas in operation. Lower that figure and let’s believe that we have only one million boda-bodas in operation.

One Million Livelihoods at Risk

Those are one million (1,000,000) people out there whose livelihood depends on being able to ride those contraptions up and down, to and fro.

We all know what they do when it simply rains, right? They have to park somewhere and wait.

With El Niño?

This is not going to be simply boda-bodas parking and being unavailable for short stints. We seriously need to be serious about the preparations for that period ahead.

The incomes of one million people are going to be compromised – so what’s going to happen to the economic cycle their consumption contribute to? What about all the small and medium scale businesses that rely on them for delivery logistics and what not?

Our first IMDPC meeting paid special attention to the drainage channels and road access. We even discussed this with the neighbours who understood how bad things can get.

Have you heard from the Kampala Capital City Authority (KCCA) yet? 

You know all these nice-looking roads that look like they are about to be finished and ready for use? The unfinished ones? Especially the ones that still have mounds of silt and, worse, soil and other solid debris piled up on the roadsides?

There Is Still Time to Plan

We should hope to hear from KCCA about all that silt, soil and other debris being cleared away before the first storm so that they don’t get into the drainage system and clog it from Day One of El Niño.

This list could go on and on till the floods end in 2027.

There should be no time to lament, but still time to plan. 

Step one – add El Niño to every agenda of every serious meeting you are about to have from today onwards – starting with your domestic ones.

El Niño is not guesswork or witchcraft, and even if it is, we would all best be prepared.