WHITHER AFRICA IN THIS US-ISRAEL-IRAN CONFLICT?

AS THE US-ISRAEL-IRAN WAR continues in its confusing limbo this week, I have read again the China-Pakistan Five Point Initiative and hereby volunteer five more from Africa to turn it into the Africa-China-Pakistan Ten-Point Initiative.

Perhaps this will help create resolution faster – and invite even more countries, nationalities and people to pile on to the list of possible solutions to a problem that is affecting us all.

First, here are the details of the  ‘China-Pakistan Five-Point Initiative For Restoring Peace and Stability in the Gulf and Middle East Region’:

I. Immediate Cessation of Hostilities: China and Pakistan called for immediate cessation of hostilities and utmost efforts to prevent the conflict from spreading. Humanitarian assistance must be allowed to all war-affected areas.

II. Start of peace talks as soon as possible. Sovereignty, territorial integrity, national independence and security of Iran and the Gulf states should be safeguarded. 

III. Security of non-military targets. The principle of protecting civilians in military conflict should be observed.

IV. Security of shipping lanes. The Strait of Hormuz, together with its adjacent waters, is an important global shipping route for goods and energy.

V. Primacy of the United Nations Charter. China and Pakistan called for efforts to practice true multilateralism, to jointly strengthen the primacy of the U.N., and to support the conclusion of an agreement for establishing a comprehensive peace framework and realizing lasting peace based on the purposes and principles of the U.N. Charter and international law.

The two Asian nations have put their minds forward with the best of intentions. Every point makes sense, and is clearly not obvious to all.

Now, what about the Africans?

What path will you take?

Hence my five additional points for the African Union to add to the China-Pakistan Five-Point Initiative, so we form the ‘Africa-China-Pakistan Ten-Point Initiative For Restoring Peace and Stability in the Gulf and Middle East Region’:

This current conflict is the second disruptive new global hit we are taking as Africa, coming after the old new conflict – the ‘Russia-Ukraine’ war.

That old new conflict hit us in various ways, the top three of which I’ll highlight here were: 

1. The decreased foreign investment into our part of the world, because money became tight for many investors out there; 
2. Lowered donor interventions into many of our countries, and; 
3. Even tighter fiscal policies within our countries – especially linked to 2. above, which had organisations like the IMF telling governments to collect more money from within rather than from foreign entities.

I say “hit us” not because all three were negative.

It is useful – necessary – for us to stop relying on foreign funding for our social programmes, and for us to organise better, and become efficient while creating wealth within our countries.

There were clear benefits from the conflict as well, which are more lively and deserve even more attention:

1. We confirmed further who our friends really were – from a process of discovery we started during the COVID-19 pandemic when many countries outside our patch closed their doors to us in ways we still cringe to recall. In a way, that helped accelerate our regional integration focus and work on making use of the Africa Continental Free Trade Area;
2. Some of our governments actually started better budgeting and national cost management;
3. And while doing so we spent more focus on supporting the right industries to create wealth by ourselves for ourselves. In Uganda we will never forget the paper published by President Museveni re: Hard vs. Soft Industries, along with the drive for industrial value addition as we increase production.

These benefits (lessons) were still with us as we went fast forward from when the Russia-Ukraine conflict started to the start of the current war between the US-Israel and Iran.

But, as expected, this new conflict has brought with it some additional impact of note:

1. Fuel prices have gone up already in many African nations – and soon we will see knock-on inflation effects (I like that term and fear this might be the first time I have ever used it).
2. Our relationships have come into question again, as we work out not only who our real friends are but stand by them where need be. Not many African nations have fallen in line with one side or another. 
3. And this time, for real, we are really paying attention to the petrodollar vs. the petroyuan and other aspects of the regular economic order that the world has managed us under for more than a century now.

Not a problem – we have found more silver linings in the situation:

1. Even more than before, we are clearer about who our friends are, and we are exhibiting it in our stance around this situation – and our first friends are ourselves, right here in Africa.
2. We have new places to learn different lessons from – like the United Arab Emirates and their experience with Iran, coming under attack so squarely yet they seemed to be minding their own business. That won’t be – should not be – us in future.
3. We don’t need more convincing – we must double down on building our internal strengths on this continent. The days of running to Europe or the United States over our internal issues, problems and weaknesses are long gone (as some Ugandan opposition politicians have learnt starkly in this season, their timing has been so bad!). Nigerian billionaire Aliko Dangote’s petroleum refinery is a good case in point here – even though he can’t supply all of Nigeria’s oil needs just yet, we need to create, find and support more of such initiatives, now that we know AFRICANS CAN.
4. Our resources are still intact so we should build the right alliances now – as the Neo-Confucian Chinese philosopher Zhu Xi said over 800 years ago: “Do not wait till you are thirsty before you dig a well.” Prepare TODAY. Confucius himself said, “A workman who wants to do his work well must first prepare his tools”. This emphasizes that preparing one’s skills, mind, and resources (tools) is vital before starting a task.” We have our ‘tools’ – the people, the natural resources including all our critical raw materials, the research and applications, and more – we should not wait any further.
5. And on that note, we need to trade more within ourselves as Africans in Africa IMMEDIATELY. Aliko Dangote has proven his value as a potential provider of refined oil resources (fuel being top of mind for everyone) to the extent of being offered – in a sense – East Africa as an investment destination as well. We should wake up to our opportunity – an opportunity to create real independence from the straits (pun intended) of global commerce. We now CAN wake up from the slumber that has held us back these 200 years past.

There we have our Five (5) points.

Stating them is not enough.

In my most recent discussions with friends about these points being made a reality we agreed that the foundation we should build on is sound:

1. Who we are – as Africans – starting with our culture, traditions, belief systems and grounding. We need to unravel the disorientation that has kept us fighting each other for these centuries in a manner designed to divide rather than unite; and to destroy rather than to build.
2. Our real friends and partners – this is the time to identify them and strengthen those networks. We could have done this during the pandemic when face masks and vaccines were withheld from us, but we did not. This time we should Be Serious.
3. The ability to withstand bullying – we have proven this as a continental block this time round, as some of us tried to during the Russia-Ukraine War. The more we position ourselves on the premise “Africa First” the sooner Africa will actually be put first by everybody else.
4. Our production potential – including oil for fuel and manufacturing of finished goods as well as essential catalysts like fertiliser. There should be no more talk of potential – this needs to be our reality, as the likes of Dangote have helped prove. 
5. Cement our position as Guarantors and Supporters of Peace and Security – because we are not involved in these conflicts that are engulfing the world. This is the time to raise our voice when initiatives such as the China-Pakistan 5-Point Initiative are being formulated because we must not be pawns in the middle of the board but essential pieces that must not be sacrificed.

Viva Africa!